Crypto heads into the new week with its Friday rally on shakier ground.
The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil lower and pushed risk assets higher, including bitcoin and the wider crypto market. The opening reversed on Saturday, with Iran firing at ships attempting to pass and the U.S. seizing an Iranian-flagged tanker on Sunday.
With the ceasefire set to expire by mid-week, traders will be watching whether the risk-on rotation can survive a renewed energy shock.
The technical level to watch is clear. Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares, told CoinDesk the follow-through hinges on bitcoin holding its ETF cost basis near $74,000.
“With Hormuz reopening, oil is off and equities have caught a bid back to ATHs, pulling crypto higher with it,” Nolan said. “Follow-through now hinges on BTC decisively holding above its ETF cost basis (~$74k), which would confirm the risk-on rotation already visible in flows. ETF flows have turned positive the last three sessions, and a pickup in that pace would be supportive of the move higher.”
A decisive hold above $74,000 into the ceasefire deadline, paired with a fourth straight session of positive ETF inflows, would validate the rotation thesis. A break below would bring volatility back into the sector.
What to Watch
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- April 30: Comment period on the CFTC’s Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets closes.
- Macro
- April 20, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Consumer Price Index YoY for March (Prev. 1.8%); Core Rate (Prev. 2.3%)
- April 21, 1:30 p.m.: Fed Gov. Christopher J. Waller speech on”Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
- April 22, 1:00 a.m.: UK Consumer Price Inflation YoY for March (Prev. 3.0%); Core rate (Prev. 3.2%)
- April 22, 7:30 p.m.: Japan S&P Global Services PMI Flash for April (Prev. 53); Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 51.6)
- April 23, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Producer Price Index YoY for MArch (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 0.4%)
- April 23,7:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending April 18 (Prev. 207K)
- April 23, 8:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April (Prev. 52.3); Services PMI (Prev. 49.8)
- April 23, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for period ending April 22 (Prev. $6.71T)
- April 23, 6:30 p.m.: Japan Consumer Price Index YoY for March (Prev. 1.3%); Core CPI (Prev. 1.6%)
- April 24, 3:00 a.m.: Germany Ifo Business Climate for April (Prev. 86.4)
- April 24, 9 a.m.: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for April est. 47.6 (Prev. 53.3)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data where available)
- April 22: Tesla (TSLA), pre-market, $0.3
- April 22: CME Group (CME), pre-market, $3.29
- April 23: Nasdaq (NDAQ), pre-market, $0.93
Token Events
- Governance Votes & Calls
- SafeDAO is voting to allocate 5 million SAFE tokens to fund a six-month staking rewards program and interface development for Safenet Beta. Voting ends April 20.
- Unlock DAO is voting on a payment plan to compensate members for their contributions to the collaboration platform throughout March and April. Voting ends April 20.
- RootstockCollective DAO is voting on a 20,000 USDRIF grant to fund a security audit for TYKORA Prize Vaults, a no-loss savings protocol. Voting ends April 20.
- ENS DAO is voting to update its DNSSEC implementation by repointing algorithm 7 to a previously patched contract, adding proper padding validation to correct an omission from a prior security update. Voting ends April 21.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to overhaul its transparency infrastructure by establishing named ownership for all record-keeping systems, publishing strict maintenance standards, and creating a single accessible portal for the community to locate data. Voting ends April 22.
- Telcoin Platform Council DAO is voting to allocate 50 million TEL to hire a strategic telecom advisor to drive GSMA adoption. Voting ends April 22.
- Aavegotchi DAO is voting to appoint nine multi-sig signers for 2026-2027, maintain a 5-of-9 security threshold, set their quarterly compensation at $1,000 in GHST and establish a succession plan. Voting ends April 22.
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting to explore adding an optional Moonpay fiat on-ramp to its AI chat, focusing on feasibility and risks without committing any funds or approving implementation yet. Voting ends April 23.
- Gitcoin DAO is voting to claw back remaining unclaimed fees from the discontinued public goods network (PGN). Voting ends April 24.
- Parallel DAO is voting to begin sunsetting its V2 EUR stablecoin by halting most new issuance and imposing a punitive 50% borrow rate to encourage users to repay their existing debt. Voting ends April 24.
- Unlocks
- April 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.35% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
- April 22: Undeads Games (UDS) to unlock 13.47% of its circulating supply worth $37.09 million.
- April 23: Toncoin (TON) to unlock 1.47% of its circulating supply worth $49.75 million.
- April 25: Humanity Protocol (H) to unlock 4.02% of its circulating supply worth around $11.88 million.
- April 25: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $15.6 million.
- April 26: Plasma (XPL) to unlock 3.73% of its circulating supply worth $10.10 million.
- Token Launches
